Regional Climate Simulation Ensembles within CORDEX-EA Framework over the Loess Plateau: Evaluation and Future Projections

As a semi-arid to semi-humid transitional zone, the Loess Plateau is sensitive climate change due its fragile ecological environment and geographic features. This study assesses performance of six historical experiments from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in this region during 1980–2005. In addition, projected future changes surface air temperature precipitation are investigated under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 8.5 three periods 21st century: early (2011–2040), middle (2041–2070), late (2071–2099). Results show that reasonably reproduce spatial pattern 2m for all seasons, yet with slight warm bias prominent wet bias. future, area-averaged magnitude will be 1.1 °C, 1.4 °C RCP2.6 1.3 2.7 4.5 RCP8.5 early, middle, periods, respectively. The warming effect greater elevated areas. Precipitation more complex, both increasing decreasing trends, depending on season, location, scenario. results expected provide regional information decision makers benefit applications such as agriculture, protection, water resource management.